Good old Vlad is at it again.
The man who George W. Bush looked in the eye in 2001 (after tilting his head sharply downward) and found to be "very straightforward and trustworthy" (really now, did George get anything right in 8 years...anything at all?) The man who successfully consolidated his power and stripped Russians of many of the rights they'd gained after communism's fall, has now completed a constitutional end-around that will in all likelihood keep him running Russia as either President or Premier (or Tsar perhaps?) for the rest of his life.
In his most recent performance for the Russian and world press, a rather smug, testy Putin described his future role as the "head of the Russian Government" AFTER he steps down as President.
Putin, playing the role of strongman with a colossal chip on his shoulder, has used his stranglehold on the Russian media to tap into the desire of the average Russian to return to the "glory days" when the Soviet Union could throw its weight around. His carefully orchestrated public persona ensures he is wildly popular at home.
I was in Moscow in early December, 2007 and witnessed the "spontaneous" demonstrations supporting Putin in front of embassies and news agencies after rumors flew around the city that the West was trying to "steal" the election. Thousands of "Our Russia" youth (most appeared aged 18-22) took to the streets wearing red plastic capes with Putin's likeness stenciled on the back.
It looks like the former KGB man has ushered in a return of Russian chauvinism -- arresting or killing internal dissenters, playing up ethnic differences, and threatening his neighbors by cutting off energy supplies or with nuclear weapons. Where exactly would the fallout from a Russian attack on Poland, the Czech Republic or Ukraine wind up Vlad, have you checked the prevailing winds lately?
As usual, the columnist Ralph Peters has seen through Mr. Putin's shenanigans, finding commonality between statements the Putin administration makes today with the propaganda machine run by the communist party back in their Stalinist heyday. Fortunately, it appears most of Europe has seen through Putin's charade and recognized that a strong, common diplomatic front will be necessary to deflect his ambition for a return to completely dependent, docile buffer states on the Russian periphery.
Russia remains a third world nation, albeit with abundant energy supplies and nukes. Contrary to all the bluster of the Putin regime, their conventional military is in a shambles. The only component of their strategic forces that continues to impress is their land-based ICBMs. Their navy has collapsed to the point of inconsequentiality. The recent launch of their newest ballistic missile submarine is a hollow victory as the missile it was designed to carry has so far had a miserable test record. I guess they could use the new sub as a battering ram.
Over the past few months, the revival of out-of-area long range aviation activity hollowly hearkens back to the glory days, but still remains nothing more than a sporadic attempt at muscle flexing. Kind of like an aging, flabby body-builder showing up at the gym a couple times a year and grunting loudly as he bangs some weights around. Pathetic really. How the mighty have fallen.
What to do? While we definitely don't want to create the Cold War version 2.0, we also don't want to simply cave in every time Putin throws a tantrum. Continued, improved relations with the rest of Europe will help, as will attempting to find ways to engage the Russians and work together in areas where we have common interests. If the West can muster some foresight and resolve, things should be fine, although the potential remains for flare-ups. Did I hear someone mention independence for Kosovo?
Perhaps I was a little harsh on President Bush, his initial assessment may have been partially correct. Mr. Putin's grab for power was quite straightforward, but the man is anything but trustworthy.
