Sorry I've been a bit delinquent in posting. Nothing at all in February is pathetic. Things were a bit hectic, and then I went on leave to Australia and just returned yesterday. Yes, I had a blast! More on that trip in a separate post.
Tomorrow is Election Day in Iraq. Nationwide Parliamentary elections to be exact. This will be the first entirely Iraqi run election since the invasion in 2003 and is also a pretty major milestone toward the US withdrawal. We're expecting pretty high participation and likely a small amount of violence.
After the election there will be a lot of maneuvering between the political parties and those elected to Parliament (325 seats) to decide on a Prime Minister and form a government. It's expected to take several months, so perhaps by the time I leave here at the end of June we'll have an idea on who will be the next Prime Minister. Since no one party will have a majority, several parties will need to reach consensus to select the PM, which is good for Iraq...there needs to be more compromise and consensus...and trends have been pretty positive in the months leading up to election that groups are more willing to compromise. Iraq has a lot of potential if the groups can learn to get along, oil exports are expected to triple over the next five years. So there should be plenty of wealth to go around as long as one particular group doesn't get too selfish or greedy.
Although we're not officially supposed to have an opinion on who the next PM will be, I think it will be best if the current PM does not return. He's been showing some pretty serious tendencies of late to bend the rules in an effort to consolidate his power...and I think another four years would entrench him to the point he wouldn't leave. Better to get a new face from a new party and shake things up a bit.
Starting in mid January I've been in the unique position to be able to meet with the two chiefs of the security team for Vice President Hashimi, who is a leading Sunni politician. I share information with them about security threats around the country and they've been giving me a first hand look at politics within Iraq, and more specifically the Sunni/Shia divide within the country. I meet with them once a week and we talk things over for an hour or two over sweet tea and lunch. They've hosted me a few times and I took them to the Embassy for lunch once. I've really enjoyed the interaction.
It will definitely take time for the sectarian divide to be bridged completely, but as I mentioned earlier, there have been some pretty positive signs. But one or two incidents or the wrong leaders coming into power could definitely move things backward. I think enough politicians have the violence of 2005-2008 fresh in their minds though and will continue to work across the sectarian divide to be more inclusive...but I freely admit I'm an optimist.
It's been fun to see the events unfold firsthand, but I'm amazed sometimes at the seemingly glacial pace things move. The elections were intially supposed to be held on 16 January...tomorrow is 7 March...you get the idea. And what seems to be a crisis today fades into obscurity after a week or two. Overall though, there's been a great deal of progress since I arrived on 1 July. It's the opposite of my first trip here (Jul 04 to Mar 05) when things were going pretty steadily downhill...so for me it's good to see the progress.
Hopefully Election Day tomorrow will be another step in that direction.